FaithShift

☪ 7th-century Arabia

Islam

The fastest-growing major religion — driven almost entirely by fertility and youth, not by conversion.

Adherents

2.0bn

Share of world

25.6%

Median age

24

Net from switching

+1m

Where it is actually moving

Switching in and out is nearly balanced worldwide. Growth comes from the youngest median age of any major faith and from high-fertility populations in West Africa, the Sahel and South Asia.

Largest Muslim populations

  • Indonesia

    242m · 87%

    The world's largest Muslim-majority country also contains Bali, a Hindu island of over 4 million within an 87% Muslim nation.

  • Pakistan

    230m · 96%

    On current fertility, Pakistan is projected to overtake Indonesia as the country with the world's largest Muslim population before 2050.

  • India

    215m · 15%

    Pew's landmark India survey found 98% of Indian adults still identify with the religion they were raised in — the lowest switching rate of any large country on Earth.

  • Bangladesh

    157m · 91%

    The Hindu share has fallen from about 22% at independence in 1971 to under 9%, driven by migration rather than conversion.

  • Nigeria

    116m · 52%

    Africa's most populous country is split almost exactly down the middle, Muslim north and Christian south, and is projected to hold the world's third-largest Christian population by 2060.

  • Egypt

    102m · 90%

    Egypt's Coptic Orthodox community is the largest Christian population in the Middle East, roughly 10 million people.

  • Iran

    85.4m · 96%

    Anonymous online surveys consistently find far lower Shia identification than official figures — one of the widest measured gaps between stated and private religion.

  • Türkiye

    81.6m · 96%

    Survey work finds self-declared 'deists' and non-believers rising fastest among Turks under 30, from a very low base.

  • Ethiopia

    42.8m · 34%

    Home to Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo, one of the oldest continuous Christian traditions, established in the 4th century.

  • Saudi Arabia

    34.4m · 93%

    Almost all non-Muslim residents are migrant workers; the Hindu and Christian minorities are among the fastest-growing populations in the Gulf by migration alone.

  • Russia

    18.7m · 13%

    One of the few countries with net movement *into* religion: Orthodox identification rose from about 31% in 1991 to over 70% after the Soviet collapse.

  • China

    14.1m · 1%

    China holds the largest unaffiliated population on Earth — roughly 875 million people — alongside one of the fastest-growing Protestant communities.

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